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AI就业末日推迟，AI岗位繁荣来临
《经济学人》文章认为，AI对就业的初步影响是积极的。美国8月新增就业16.2万，失业率4.1%，年轻工人表现良好。尽管专业和商业服务招聘低于2015-19年平均水平约10%，科技巨头和部分公司裁员，但AI也在创造大量新岗位，包括数据中心建设、AI初创公司招聘等。据估计，AI已在美国创造约100万个新岗位，超过AI相关裁员数。
AI推荐理由 基于《经济学人》文章，引用美国劳工统计局数据，指出AI对就业的初步影响积极，并估算AI已创造约100万新岗位，超过AI相关裁员数。信息有来源，但为观点性分析，且时效性存疑（文章日期为2026年，但内容可能基于较早数据）。
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《经济学人》上一篇关于AI的新文章认为，“技术对就业的初步影响看起来是积极的。”
也许AI最终会让许多人类无法就业——但目前还没有迹象。9月4日，劳工统计局报告称，美国经济在8月增加了162,000个工作岗位，远超预期。失业率仅为4.1%，低于过去半个世纪近90%月份的失业率。年轻工人，常被视为AI的首批受害者，表现相当不错：20-24岁人群的失业率与整体失业率之间的差距接近几十年来的低点。
一些公司和工人正受到AI的严重干扰。专业和商业服务领域的招聘比2015-19年的平均水平低约10%。像微软和Meta这样的科技巨头正在围绕技术重组业务，削减员工人数。像Block（Square和Cash App的所有者）和Intuit（TurboTax和QuickBooks的制造商）这样的小公司正在用机器人取代人员。根据就业咨询公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据，美国公司今年迄今平均每月宣布约16,000个与AI相关的裁员。
但AI相关的裁员在动荡的就业市场中显得微不足道，雇主通常每月裁员约170万人。而且迄今为止的证据表明，AI已经在创造大量工作岗位来取代它摧毁的岗位。涌入数据中心和发电领域的巨额资金引发了建筑和基础设施工人的争夺。AI初创公司正在疯狂招聘。竞相跟上的现有企业正在创造新的AI角色。通过提高一些工人的生产力，AI可能正在增加对其服务的需求。
综合起来，《经济学人》估计，AI迄今在美国创造了约100万个新工作岗位。这轻松超过了自2023年中期以来归因于AI的约20万裁员，并且似乎足以抵消许多后台职位招聘疲软的影响。
他们的文章承认，自2023年1月以来，客服人员的就业下降了约10%，行政助理下降了15%。但当《经济学人》研究“最接近AI繁荣”的职业——工程师、软件开发人员、数学家和数据科学家——时，他们发现自2022年以来，这些职业增加了约73万个超出趋势的工作岗位。他们认为AI正在为从模型和部署工程师到新数据标注员的每个人创造新的白领工作。
Burning Glass Institute的首席经济学家同意这一观点，估计现在大约1%的专业工作是“AI工作”——在美国约有100万个职位——而在计算机职业和生命科学领域，这一比例在4%到5%之间。（根据人口普查局的数据，数据中心建设支出也在一年内增长了60%，为电工、暖通空调专家、电网工程师和机器技术人员创造了就业机会。）而且“Indeed发现，数据中心的安装和维护岗位广告工资比其他地方的可比工作高出约40%。”
查看原文（中文正文为 AI 翻译）
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A new article about AI in The Economist argues that "Initial effects of the technology on employment look positive."
Perhaps AI will eventually make many humans unemployable — but there is no sign of it yet. On September 4th the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the American economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations. The unemployment rate is just 4.1%, lower than in almost 90% of months over the past half-century. Young workers, often cast as AI's first victims, are holding up remarkably well: the gap between unemployment among 20-24-year-olds and the overall rate is close to a multi-decade low.
Some companies and workers are being severely disrupted by AI. Hiring in professional and business services is running about 10% below the average in 2015-19. Tech giants like Microsoft and Meta are trimming headcounts as they reorganise their businesses around the technology. Smaller firms such as Block, the owner of Square and Cash App, and Intuit, the maker of TurboTax and QuickBooks, are replacing people with bots. American companies have announced some 16,000 AI-related job cuts a month on average so far this year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an employment consultancy.
But AI-related lay-offs gets lost in the churning jobs market where employers shed roughly 1.7m workers in a typical month. And the evidence so far is that AI is already creating a lot of jobs to replace those it has destroyed. The vast sums pouring into data centres and power generation have set off a race for construction and infrastructure workers. AI startups are hiring like there is no tomorrow. Incumbents racing to keep up are creating new AI roles. And by making some workers more productive, AI may be increasing demand for their services.
Add it all up, and The Economist estimates that AI has so far created around 1m new jobs in America. That easily exceeds the roughly 200,000 lay-offs attributed to AI since mid-2023, and appears more than enough to offset weaker hiring in many back-office roles.
Their article acknowledges that since January 2023 employment has fallen roughly 10% for customer-service workers and 15% for administrative assistants. But when The Economist looked at professions "closest to the AI boom" — engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists — they found that since 2022 they've added roughly 730,000 jobs above trend. They see AI as creating new white-collar jobs for everyone from model and deployment engineers to new data annotators.
The chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute agrees, estimating that roughly 1% of professional jobs are now "AI jobs" — about 1 million positions in the U.S. — while in computer occupations and life sciences it's between 4% and 5%. (Data-center construction spending also increased 60% in one year, according to Census Bureau data, creating jobs for electricians, HVAC specialists, grid engineers, and machine technicians.) And "Indeed finds that installation and maintenance jobs at data centres advertise wages about 40% higher than comparable work elsewhere."