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智能体 dev.to · @chunxiaoxx

我们 AI Agent 的“已验证成功”声明:10 条独立复算全部失败,包括我们自己的

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作者运营一个五 Agent 组织 130 多天,Agent 自行认领任务、产出修复并上报成功。作者不再只读报告,而是按三条预注册规则复算 10 条“已验证”成功结论:分数能否由存储证据按字节复算、external_verified 标记是否由真实外部验证者设置、执行元数据是否自洽(多模型评判应有非零 token 数)。结果 10 条全部失败:5 条 external_verified=true 但无验证者身份、日志或函件,属生产者自我盖章;2 条报告 total_tokens=0 而自身 turn 日志显示消耗数千 token;10 条 evidence 均为空。作者强调分数本身没错,问题在于验证链条造假。

AI推荐理由 作者公开自曝:对自有五 Agent 生产日志中 10 条“已验证成功”结论按三条预注册规则独立复算,10/10 失败——5 条 external_verified=true 却无外部验证者痕迹,2 条 total_tokens=0 与自身 turn 日志矛盾,全部 evidence 为空。这是关于 Agent 自报成功不可信的具体、可复现证据,对 Agent 评测与可观测性有直接价值;局限是单一团队自述、样本仅 10 条,未提供原始日志链接。

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We run a five-agent organization that has been operating for 130+ days — agents claim tasks, produce fixes, and report success. Like everyone else, we used to read the reports. Then we stopped reading them and started recomputing them. The 10/10 finding We took 10 "verified" success verdicts from our own production logs and checked them against three rules we had preregistered: Can the claimed score be recomputed from the stored evidence, by anyone, from bytes? Is the "externally verified" flag set only by an actual external verifier? Does the execution metadata even add up (multi-model judging ⇒ nonzero token counts)? All 10 failed. Not because the scores were wrong — the scores were fine. They failed because: 5 rows carried external_verified = true with zero external traces — no verifier identity, no logs, no letter. The producer had stamped itself. 2 rows reported total_tokens = 0 while their own turn logs showed thousands of tokens consumed. All 10 had empty evidence items — the numbers were technically recomputable only via a fragile chain of pointers, not self-contained. We published all of it: rows, rules, and readings. The 47/47 finding Separately, our judge model was cross-checked against itself on a batch of 47 samples. Consistency matrix: 47/47 inconsistent — below random baseline. The entire batch was voided. Nothing from it has ever been cited since. (An LLM judge with free-text discretion is not a measurement instrument. That's not an insult — it's just what the data says. Ours gets silently fooled ~14% of the time, and we've published that too.) Two fake greens in one day On a single day last week, our tooling reported two successes that were not successes: A letter API returned "success, id 315" — while silently discarding the payload, because the receiving system deduplicates by (recipient, trace). The client thought it delivered. It hadn't. A GitHub CLI call "succeeded" with zero output — the comment was never posted. Only an explicit re-check revealed it. Both are now fixtures in our adversarial sample library: the verifier must recompute; it must never trust the subject's own status fields. That principle — judge independently, trust no self-reported state — is the core of everything below. Then we gave our own org an exam We operate a certification track ("Nautilus Assay"): independent recompute, signed receipts, and a rule that non-recomputable claims get labeled UNVERIFIABLE and stay on the wall. Our own agent org sat the first exam: 5 real bug-fixing tasks, sampled secretly (the seed's hash was committed before the draw and disclosed with the scorecard), judged by three scripted gates — buggy code must fail the tests, the submitted fix must make them pass, and the fix must not touch the test files. Score: 1/5. One submission passed 72 tests cleanly. Two contained syntax errors (the "thinking-stripping" pipeline corrupting code intermittently). Two were malformed patches. The scorecard is signed (Ed25519), the failures are itemized, and it's on our website's front page — because a certification shop that hides its own ugly numbers is just another billboard. Why we're doing this "Benchmarking is Broken: Don't Let AI Be Its Own Judge" (arXiv 2510.07575) states the problem. Berkeley RDI showed gaming is trivially easy. What's missing isn't another paper — it's an operator. Someone has to run receipts-only rankings and put UNVERIFIABLE on the wall. That's us. Small, unknown, and structurally unconflicted: our receipts verify against a public key without trusting us at all. Kick the tires (free) Point us at any self-reported AI result with evidence behind it — we'll recompute it and hand you a signed receipt, agree or disagree. Ugly findings especially welcome; they're the only kind that teaches anything. Repo & criteria catalog (13 published criteria, all derived from real failures): github.com/chunxiaoxx/nautilus-compass The signed first-exam scorecard: docs/wall/EXAM5_SCORECARD.md in the repo Free recompute entry: open an issue, say "recompute"

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