智能体
seangoedecke.com ·
@Sean Goedecke
缓慢的开发者体验将成为快速模型的瓶颈
文章认为,随着小模型变快、强模型变小,AI编码的瓶颈将从token生成转向工具调用与开发循环速度,文件读取和测试运行的毫秒级差异会显著影响体验。作者据此预测,面向AI agent的DevEx团队可能在2020年代末回归,并推动团队采用编译和测试更快的语言(如Golang)。文中以Taalas的LLaMA-3.1-8B每秒约1.7万token、GPT-6-Astra约每秒60token为例说明速度差异,但相关判断属个人推测。
AI推荐理由 作者提出具体论点:当模型推理速度提升到每秒数千token后,瓶颈将从生成转向工具调用与开发循环(文件读取、测试运行),并据此预测DevEx团队可能回归、Golang等快编译语言在agentic编码中更受青睐。文中引用Taalas的LLaMA-3.1-8B达每秒1.7万token、GPT-6-Astra约每秒60token等具体数字,观点明确但属个人推断,非实证结论。
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Right now developer experience is measured in seconds. If your tests take a second to run, that’s good; if they take thirty seconds, that’s bad. Any faster than a second doesn’t really matter, because most of your time is spent either thinking or waiting for an AI agent to spin. Shaving milliseconds off your dev server reload time or whatever is pointless: that’s not the bottleneck. It will be. Small models are getting faster and faster, and smart models are getting smaller. I think most engineers will still want to use the smartest available model — software engineering is hard — but we will increasingly see faster models get used as subagents or for well-understood tasks. This is largely uncharted territory. Very few people have developed intuitions for what it is going to be like to work with agents that run at thousands of tokens-per-second. GPT-6-Astra can run at about sixty tokens per second. That means you spend a lot of time waiting for it to think. You work with it like you would work with another human: delegating a task and then context-switching until that task is complete. If you haven’t yet, have a play around with Jimmy, Taalas’ version of LLaMA-3.1-8B running1 at seventeen thousand tokens per second. No matter how long the response is, it arrives in the instant of you hitting send. The model is not good enough for agentic work, but it gives a glimpse of what it would be like: you would simply get your answer instantly2. Well, that’s assuming the agent’s tool calls are fast. When generating tokens is not the bottleneck, it will suddenly matter a lot whether it can read a file in 100ms vs 10ms, or whether it can run your tests in 500ms vs two seconds. Fast tool calls are going to be the difference between a near-instant response and having to wait several minutes. There is thus going to be enormous pressure to do agentic coding in languages with fast compilers and tests, like Golang, and to tightly optimize the dev loop in agentic codebases. Teams focused on DevEx — developer experience — are largely a relic of the 2010s, when companies were incentivized to make their engineers happy. Most companies have cut them down to a skeleton crew or removed them entirely. But we may see a return of DevEx in the late 2020s, focused on speeding up the experience for AI agents. Like most ultra-fast inference, it relies on fitting the entire model onto a huge GPU-like chip that’s specially designed to run inference: for Taalas, it’s in the silicon itself; for Cerebras and Groq, it’s in giant embedded onboard memory units. ↩ Will AI providers simply train models to spend more time reasoning, so users would have to wait for roughly the same time? I doubt it. Most ordinary engineering problems would not be solved better by spending an extra million tokens thinking. You only need to do that when you’re pushing right up against the limits of the model. ↩