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@Gary Marcus
这会是前沿实验室的 WeWork 时刻吗？
Gary Marcus在Substack撰文质疑前沿AI实验室的高估值，提到OpenAI将营收预期下调200亿美元、中国开源权重模型引发价格战、失控代理带来的责任风险，以及美国上诉法院一项不利于生成式AI公司的版权裁决。文章为作者个人分析，所引数据与事件需以原始来源核实。
AI推荐理由 Gary Marcus在Substack评论前沿实验室估值风险，提及OpenAI下调营收预期200亿美元、中国开源权重模型引发价格战、代理失控责任问题及美国上诉法院版权裁决等具体论点，属有明确立场的分析而非事实报道，相关说法需以原始来源核实。
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正文
In May, at the peak of tokenmaxxing, people were talking about OpenAI IPO’ing at a trillion dollars, Anthropic at two trillion dollars. Maybe that will still happen, but it probably shouldn’t. Tokenmaxxing died, Chinese open-weight models forced price wars, there was some hinkiness around some of projections OpenAI’s revenue and the so-called “rogue AI” (really just bad software) fiasco hadn’t yet made the news. With the errant, and possibly criminal, nature of poorly controlled agents now front and center, potential liability is clearly becoming a major new issue. LLM’s might well someday be renamed Large Liability Modules. A significant new copyright decision by a U.S. appeals court also just undermined the generative AI companies: Against all of this, it’s harder and harder to fathom how the companies could really merit the enormous valuations they are seeking. This is perhaps part of why OpenAI has pushed back their OpenAI until 2027. (Anthropic is supposedly going to IPO next month, but notably still has not publicly released its S-1.) § Two things I read this morning, jet lagged in New Dehli, seem even more ominous. The paywall below is your occasional gentle reminder that I work hard on this newsletter and appreciate paid subscribers. Read more