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a16z 谈当前 AI 周期：由盈利驱动而非估值倍数，AI 采用广而浅
a16z 的 David George 与 Santiago Rodriguez 认为本轮市场与 2000 年或 2021 年不同：股票上涨约 20% 的同时估值倍数下降约 20%，S&P 市盈率低于 20 倍，市场自 ChatGPT 发布以来上涨 90%、年化约 17%，表现由基本面盈利而非倍数扩张驱动。相关帖文还称高科技设备、软件与研发已占美国资本开支约 55%，五大超大规模厂商今年资本开支约 7800 亿美元、2027 年将超 1 万亿美元；AI 采用广而浅，69% 标普 500 公司有在用 AI 部署，30% 报告量化结果，仅 2% 的 AI 任务停掉会被注意。
AI推荐理由 a16z 合伙人对当前市场与 AI 周期的分析，给出可核对的量化观点：股票涨约 20% 而估值倍数降约 20%、S&P 低于 20 倍市盈率、ChatGPT 以来市场涨 90%、年化 17%、五大超大规模厂商今年资本开支约 7800 亿美元、69% 标普 500 有 AI 部署但仅 30% 报告量化结果、仅 2% 的 AI 任务停掉会被注意。属于观点性内容，非一手数据发布，部分数字需查证。
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正文
Bubbles are made of multiples. This market is made of earnings. a16z's David George and Santiago Rodriguez on what makes this cycle different from 2000 or 2021:
David: "The market has reached new highs, and at the same time that it has reached new highs, the trading multiples of the market are actually down."
"Stocks are up about 20% while multiples are down about 20%. What that means is the performance is driven by fundamental earnings, not increased multiples."
"It's nothing like the dot-com boom, where some of the highest market cap companies in the world had their massive stock run-ups based on increases in their trading multiples and would trade, in many cases, for like 100x PE. That's not what's happening here."
Santiago: "Since ChatGPT came out almost four years ago, the market's up 90%, which is 17% annualized."
"Any time there's been a 17% annualized growth for four years, the natural instinct is, well, that's got to come down."
"But when you compare that to the market trading for below 20x earnings growing 15%, this definitely feels a little different than the 2021 period or the 2000 period, when multiples and growth were not really going together."
@DavidGeorge83 @santiago__rdz