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对 Dario 关于 RSI 说法的质疑：系统卡数据并不支持
Gary Marcus 转述 Ramez Naam 的观点，认为 Dario Amodei 在 Pacing AI 信中称 RSI 正在发生的说法与所引博客及 Claude、ChatGPT 系统卡不符。转述称 Mythos 5.1 系统卡表示尚未接近 RSI、风险低，并称已观察到的编码生产力提升仅够维持当前进展速度；Mythos 5.0 系统卡估算需约 40 倍生产力提升才能让 AI 进展速度翻倍，指向明显的收益递减。
AI推荐理由 Gary Marcus 转述 Ramez Naam 对 Dario Amodei 关于 RSI（递归自我改进）说法的质疑，引用 Claude 系统卡中“尚未接近 RSI、风险低”的表述，以及 Mythos 5.0/5.1 系统卡中关于生产力增益被算法难度上升抵消、需约 40 倍生产力提升才能让 AI 进展速度翻倍的估算。属于对公开系统卡证据的解读与争论，观点明确但为二手转述，具体数字需回查原始系统卡核实。
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正文
A second way in which Dario’s letter does not hold up to close inspection. (See my newsletter for the first.)
Ramez Naam@ramez
In his Pacing AI letter, Dario claims that RSI is starting to happen. The problem with this statement is that both the blog posts he links to \*and\* the system cards for the latest Claude and ChatGPT models make it clear that they are not seeing RSI.
In fact, the data Anthropic in particular has released thus far makes the case that, while RSI could happen, it's going to immediately run into steeply diminishing returns and not lead to an unbounded intelligence exploson.
Figures and details:
1. Claim in Dario's letter.
2. Quote from Mythos 5.1 system card saying they aren't close to RSI. Risk = low.
3. Quote from Mythos 5.1 system card saying that they believe the coding productivity increase they've seen has been needed just to \*maintain\* the current rate of progress. (Because AI progress gets harder over time, not easier.) The challenges of finding better algorithms are eating up the productivity gains of using better and better AI tools, is how I read this.
4. Quote from Mythos 5.0 system card estimating that a 40x productivity increase would be needed to double the rate of AI progress. This is consistent with a scaling law exponent of a bit worse than (1/5), meaning that you need to take the fifth root of researcher productivity to find the rate at which progress improves. That's consistent with plenty of other evidence in how human innovation and scientific results scale with added inputs.
In short: Dario may say they're on the verge of RSI. But the system cards for their models disagree, and give us reason to believe that both RSI and simpler AI-augmented productivity gains are subject to steep diminishing returns.
[🔗 View Quoted Tweet](https://x.com/ramez/status/2098865123947585843)