Pinocchio：面向黑盒语言模型的快速不确定性估计

Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence arXiv:2609.24881 (cs) [Submitted on 21 Sep 2026] Title:Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models Authors:Kevin David Hayes, Arka Pal, Haosong Zhang, Tom Goldstein, Micah Goldblum View a PDF of the paper titled Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models, by Kevin David Hayes and 4 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:In high-stakes decision-making applications of large language models (LLMs), practitioners require not only accurate LLMs but also uncertainty estimates for their predictions. Existing approaches to uncertainty estimation for LLMs require access to log-probabilities output by the model or require fine-tuning access. However, many industrial LLM products use closed-source API models, and many such API models like GPT do not return log-probabilities and may not allow fine-tuning. We introduce Pinocchio, an external calibrator that estimates the correctness of responses from black-box API models. Trained jointly on responses from seven LLMs, it achieves 0.862 AUROC predicting the correctness of held-out responses from those same models, and shows zero-shot transfer to thirteen unseen models across eight organizations. Our model needs only a single forward pass to generate an uncertainty estimate and requires no access to the target model's logits, weights, or internal states. A lightweight text only 0.8B checkpoint matches our largest model's AUROC. We release code for adding uncertainty estimation to existing repos in only two additional lines of code. Subjects: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) Cite as: arXiv:2609.24881 [cs.AI] (or arXiv:2609.24881v1 [cs.AI] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.24881 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Kevin Hayes [view email] [v1] Mon, 21 Sep 2026 16:48:50 UTC (215 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models, by Kevin David Hayes and 4 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.AI new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)