大型语言模型能否预测社会政策的行为反应？以中国灵活就业人员养老保险参保预测为例

Computer Science > Computation and Language arXiv:2609.05189 (cs) [Submitted on 4 Sep 2026] Title:Can Large Language Models Anticipate Behavioral Responses to Social Policies? A Case of Pension Enrollment Prediction among China's Flexible Workers Authors:Yumiao Li, Peixin Liu, Donglin Di, Chen Li, Runhuan Feng View a PDF of the paper titled Can Large Language Models Anticipate Behavioral Responses to Social Policies? A Case of Pension Enrollment Prediction among China's Flexible Workers, by Yumiao Li and 4 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Assessing the impacts of social policy changes is a widely acknowledged challenge for policymakers. Econometric methods can be unreliable when extrapolating to hypothetical scenarios, while field pilot programs are highly costly. In this paper, we propose using large language models (LLMs) as policy-assessment tools adapted from general-purpose models. We present FlexPension-LLM, the first domain-specialized large language model for a hierarchical pension-enrollment prediction task among flexible workers in China, and introduce DKI-RDistill, which injects policy-grounded cues into the prompt, including Probit-derived marginal effects and hukou-province pension rules. The method then uses LoRA/SFT to distill rationale-augmented supervision into an open-weight MoE student, with teacher errors corrected by regenerating those cases under ground-truth labels. On a CHFS 2019 blind split, FlexPension-LLM achieves 0.9316 Composite F1, surpassing its Claude Sonnet 4.5 teacher and 15 of 17 baselines, and is statistically indistinguishable from Claude Opus 4.6. Across four external surveys, it averages 0.7549 Composite F1 and shows the narrowest performance range among the strongest systems. Component analysis shows that gains come mainly from policy-grounded cue injection and error-filtered supervision, while rationales provide decision traces that can be checked against policy rules. Comments: Subjects: Computation and Language (cs.CL) Cite as: arXiv:2609.05189 [cs.CL] (or arXiv:2609.05189v1 [cs.CL] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.05189 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Yumiao Li [view email] [v1] Fri, 4 Sep 2026 14:24:27 UTC (446 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Can Large Language Models Anticipate Behavioral Responses to Social Policies? A Case of Pension Enrollment Prediction among China's Flexible Workers, by Yumiao Li and 4 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.CL new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)