论文研究
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用 AI 与类型向量建模人类行为
论文提出一种基于 AI 的行为建模方法:向大语言模型输入“类型向量”(如利他性 2/5、风险厌恶 4/5 等特质强度),令其在可观测人类选择的场景中做决策,再通过调整特质与取值最小化与人类选择的距离。作者将其应用于 35 个以上国家、78,657 名被试在 10 类经典经济博弈中的 119,147 次决策,发现风险厌恶、策略复杂度与信任三个维度即可较好匹配人类行为;拟合个体所需的类型向量聚为不到十组,个体间拟合差异较大,且类型向量可预测规则与可选行动不同的留出博弈中的行为。作者称该方法通用且可解释。
AI推荐理由 arXiv 经济学理论论文(v3,2026-09-17 修订),作者含 Matthew O. Jackson 等,方法明确:给 LLM 一个“类型向量”(如利他性 2/5、风险厌恶 4/5)并让其做选择,再通过调整特质与取值拟合人类选择。实证覆盖 35 国以上 78,657 名被试、119,147 次决策、10 类经典经济博弈,发现风险厌恶、策略复杂度、信任三个维度即可较好拟合,类型向量聚为不到十组,且能预测留出博弈中的行为。局限:摘要未给出拟合优度数值、样本代表性说明,也未说明所用具体模型;属学术预印本,未经同行评审。
78
正文
Economics > Theoretical Economics
arXiv:2608.18265 (econ)
[Submitted on 18 Aug 2026 (v1), last revised 17 Sep 2026 (this version, v3)]
Title:Modeling Human Behavior with Type Vectors Using AI
Authors:Matthew O. Jackson, Benjamin S. Manning, Yutong Xie, Walter Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei
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Abstract:We introduce a general, easy-to-implement AI-based modeling technique for analyzing human behavior. A key feature of this approach, which contrasts with existing modeling techniques, is that it combines the flexibility and interpretability of natural language with a mathematical structure that can be fitted to data and easily analyzed. We assign a large language model a vector of trait intensities-a type vector-and then ask it to choose actions across settings in which we observe human choices. For instance, the type vector (2,4) could correspond to "You are a player characterized by the following profile: Altruism: 2 out of 5, Risk Aversion: 4 out of 5," after which it is asked to make choices. We can then vary the traits (e.g., Altruism, Fairness, Trust,...) and values (e.g., 1-5) to minimize distance to human choices. We illustrate the method by applying it to model 119,147 decisions made by 78,657 subjects from more than 35 countries across 10 classic economic game roles. We find that human behavior can be closely matched using three dimensions: Risk Aversion, Strategic Sophistication, and Trust. The type vectors needed to fit individuals across games cluster into fewer than a dozen groups, with substantial variation in fit across subjects. Moreover, the individual type vectors can predict behavior in held-out games with different rules and available actions. More broadly, this new modeling method is highly generalizable and interpretable: we can input any vector of traits and use them to model behavior across any setting
Subjects:
Theoretical Economics (econ.TH); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
Cite as:
arXiv:2608.18265 [econ.TH]
(or
arXiv:2608.18265v3 [econ.TH] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.18265
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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
Submission history
From: Matthew O. Jackson [view email]
[v1]
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 19:30:59 UTC (760 KB)
[v2]
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 02:12:00 UTC (760 KB)
[v3]
Thu, 17 Sep 2026 07:56:28 UTC (765 KB)
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