论文研究
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@Phil Assheton
利用 normalizing flow 在含 nuisance parameters 情形下进行无似然推断
该论文提出一种神经网络 normalizing flow 的简单分解,仅依赖目标分布的样本生成器,即可在存在 nuisance parameters 时自然导出近似 pivotal 统计量,并从 p 值相对均匀分布的平均 KL 散度最小化角度论证其近似 pivotal 性。方法可纳入平移、尺度等群不变性的先验知识,摘要称其能几乎精确发现单样本 t 检验,在受限方差比范围内最坏情形 size 优于 Welch 检验,在 partial biserial correlation 上校准良好,且在中小样本上比 profile likelihood-ratio 方法功效更高、速度更快。
AI推荐理由 arXiv 统计方法学论文,提出基于 normalizing flow 的分解方法,在存在 nuisance parameters 时仅用样本生成器即可得到近似 pivotal 统计量,并给出最小平均 KL 散度意义下的近似 pivotal 性论证;摘要称其可几乎精确复现单样本 t 检验、在受限方差比范围内最坏情形 size 优于 Welch 检验、在 partial biserial correlation 上校准良好,并在中小样本上比 profile likelihood-ratio 方法更高功效且更快。新信息在于用神经网络流做无似然推断并自动发现经典检验统计量,对统计与 ML 交叉方向有方法学价值;局限是结论均来自摘要自述,未提供代码或复现证据,且属理论/方法类工作,对 AI 工程落地的直接价值有限。
62
正文
Statistics > Methodology
arXiv:2609.10534v1 (stat)
[Submitted on 9 Sep 2026]
Title:Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows
Authors:Phil Assheton
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Abstract:We present a simple decomposition of a neural-network-based normalizing flow that naturally uncovers a pivotal statistic (or something close) in the presence of nuisance parameters, based only on a sample generator from the distribution of interest. We show that the statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its $p$-values versus uniform and we argue that it can be expected to have good power when the dimension of the statistic equals the dimension of the parameter. It is able to incorporate prior knowledge about group invariances such as translation and scale. It can discover the one-sample $t$-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test in terms of worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range and achieves good calibration on partial biserial correlations, while showing higher power (and being much faster) on small-to-moderate samples than profile likelihood-ratio techniques.
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Subjects:
Methodology (stat.ME); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Machine Learning (stat.ML)
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arXiv:2609.10534 [stat.ME]
(or
arXiv:2609.10534v1 [stat.ME] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.10534
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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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From: Phil Assheton [view email]
[v1]
Wed, 9 Sep 2026 17:58:15 UTC (4,537 KB)
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